Bernal Heights House Sales
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Case-Shiller’s December Report: 10th consecutive increase
The December report of the Case-Shiller Index for the 5-County SF Metro Area was released today, showing its 10th consecutive increase. In the high-tier-price index, which applies to the city better than their other indexes, but still understates the increases we’ve seen here, C-S shows a 9% increase in prices in the past 12 months, December 2011 to December 2012. Again, the real estate market of the city of San Francisco itself has outperformed the general market of the 5-county metro area.
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Our full report on the Case-Shiller Index is here: http://www.paragon-re.com/Case_Shiller_Index_Deciphered_for_SF
2013 SoMa-South Beach Market Report
The South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena
& Mission Bay Condo Market
The Paragon Market Report
More condos sell in San Francisco’s South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena and Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city: This is where by far the greatest number of new condos has been built in the last 20 years. The market here heated up very rapidly in 2012, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has dwindled (contributing to the severe inventory crunch). This area is one of the world centers for high-tech and bio-tech businesses and homebuyers, and the ferocious demand competing for the very limited inventory have caused prices to jump dramatically.
Luxury condos here, in high prestige buildings, typically with spectacular views, sell for among the highest dollar per square foot values in the city. The largest sale reported to MLS in 2012 was $7,850,000 for a unit at the Millennium.
Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 775 transactions totaling almost $700 million in sales in these neighborhoods. We’ve closed more than 170 sales of $1,000,000 plus, and almost two dozen of $2,000,000 or more. This is an area we know and love well.
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Sales by Price Range
Long-Term Trends in Values
The following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distressed condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach/Yerba Buena and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends.
Here, we’ve limited the analyses to sales under $1,800,000: though this area has a large luxury component, the very high-end sales generally distort the averages for the vast majority of sales.
Sales Over, Under and At List Price
As the market gets hotter, the percentage of listings selling for over asking price increases.
Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos
A comparison of Median Price trends for 2-BR condos in 5 of the city’s neighborhoods. All 5 have been showing median price appreciation, but none more so than the South Beach and Yerba Buena neighborhoods.
Number of Listings Sold
Very strong unit sales numbers in recent quarters and they would have been significantly higher if there were more listings available to buy. Distressed condo sales are rapidly declining as the market recovery has gained momentum.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
An excellent statistic for measuring buyer demand against supply of inventory. The percentage is now at the highest point in memory.
Condos for Sale
The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years and is seriously inadequate to meet market demand.
The New-Development Condo Market
The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area: it’s been estimated that over 10,000 were built here in the first 10 years of the century. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Now, new construction is recovering in a big way — many big new projects are planned by some very well-known developers — but it will probably take about 2 years, more or less, before we see a large quantity of newly built condos coming on the market.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low — below 2 months – is considered to be indicative of a strong “Seller’s Market.”
Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above
The number of condos selling for $1m and above is at its highest point in years: Sales increased in the 4th quarter even as inventory fell. Demand for higher-end condos in the best buildings is quite competitive now.
Distressed Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area
Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area had more distressed condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distressed listings and sales has been rapidly declining with the market turnaround and looks to disappear completely in the near future.
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MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends.
AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low.
DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market.
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a “Seller’s market”, 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a “Buyer’s market.”
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings.
Paragon’s Noe Valley/Castro/Cole Valley Market Update
San Francisco Residential Market Trends
Realtor District 5: Noe Valley/ Castro/ Cole Valley
A market overview for Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (including the Castro), Dolores Heights,
Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights,
Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle
Below are a variety of charts detailing market conditions and trends in the neighborhoods of San Francisco’s central Realtor District 5. District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview. Changes in general statistics do not constitute exact measures of changes in values: what’s important are the trends.
District 5 real estate soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the market meltdown in September 2008. Values then fell 15% to 20% very quickly, stabilized in 2009 and 2010 and finally started to turn around in 2011. In 2012, the competition between buyers became ferocious for a very low inventory of homes for sale, with many listings selling very quickly in multiple-offer bidding situations. This is still the case as 2013 begins. Due to this dynamic, values here have been rapidly climbing.
Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 1500
transactions totaling $1.7 billion in sales in District 5, making us 1 of the top 2 brokers in
these neighborhoods we know and love so well.
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Statistics can be affected by many factors besides changes in value, including seasonality, inventory supply, buyer trends, a few very large sales, the quality of the data reported, financing conditions and distressed sales.
MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends.
AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low.
DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market.
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a “Seller’s market”, 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a “Buyer’s market.”
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings.
November Case-Shiller Index Released
The Case-Shiller Index just released their November report, which is reflected in the two charts below. Remember that this is for the top third of sales price-wise in the 5-county San Francisco “metro statistical area.” The city of San Francisco has recovered more quickly and dramatically than the 5-county area as a whole.
Each month, Case-Shiller recalculates the price ranges of the low, middle and top tiers (thirds) of sales by the number of units sold. One indication of what has happened over the past year is that in December of 2011, the top third (“High-Tier”) of sales started at a sales price of $573,000; in November 2012, the top third of sales started at $685,000.
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Our in-depth analysis of the Case-Shiller Index can be found online here: http://www.paragon-re.com/Case_Shiller_Index_Deciphered_for_SF
Mansions, Penthouses, Foreclosures & Fixer-Uppers: What SF Home-Buyers Bought in 2012
Mansions, Penthouses, Foreclosures & Fixer-Uppers
What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2012
Of all the homes purchased in San Francisco in 2012:
• How many had Golden Gate Bridge views? Or ocean views?
• How many were Victorian, Edwardian or Art Deco?
• How many had solar heating, elevators, pools or doorpersons?
• How many were bank sales, probate sales or short sales?
• What neighborhoods had the most sales over $5,000,000?
For our annual special report, we data-mined all of 2012′s MLS sales.
We hope you find the results as interesting as we did.
For updated information on home values and market conditions,
use our link to “Market Dynamics Charts” at the bottom of this newsletter.
2012 San Francisco Home Sales by Price Range & Neighborhood
January 2013
Overall median and average prices only give so much insight into the mix of homes sold in a particular area of the city, so these charts delineate the actual quantity of sales in specific price ranges within Realtor districts and neighborhoods around San Francisco. If you’re looking to buy, it will give you a better idea of the number of purchase options within your price range in the areas you’re considering. If you looking to sell, you’ll understand better where your home and its asking price would fall within the general curve of values in your neighborhood.
Please note that within a single Realtor district are often located multiple neighborhoods of widely different home values.
October Case-Shiller Index Released
This is for the high-price-tier index for the 5 county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area (MSA). The home values of the city of San Francisco itself (not reflected on the two charts below) went up more in run up to the financial markets crash of 2008, then declined less with the crash and now is recovering more quickly in 2012, than the entire 5 county MSA market.
Updated San Francisco Market Charts
Sales Price to List Price Percentage & Days on Market
In November, the vast majority of San Francisco homes that sold, sold very quickly without any price reduction, at an average sales price 4% above the list price: That is a strong, hot market. Properties that had to go through price reductions took over 2 months longer to accept offers and sold at a significant discount to original list price. And even in a hot market, there are listings that do not sell at all, but expire or are withdrawn from the market: Many of these will ultimately be relisted at lower prices and eventually sold.
Average Sales Price
The average price is simply the total dollar volume of sales divided by the number of sales. Like median price, it is a general statistic affected by a variety of factors and often fluctuates without great significance on a monthly basis. Among other factors, a decline in distressed home sales and/or an increase in high-end home sales, both of which are occurring now in SF, can have an outsized effect on average sales price. October saw a big jump in average sales price, and then it went up again in November. If the market acts in its typical manner, it will now fall in December and January, since the more affluent home market tends to withdraw for the holidays. (We limit this analysis to sales of up to $3m because the 5% of home sales above that – going up to $12m – $20m – severely distort the overall average by hundreds of thousands of dollars.)
Median Sales Price
The median home sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic and what’s important is the trend over the longer term — monthly fluctuations are normal. Still, October-November saw a large increase over the relatively static median prices seen in the previous 6 months, which followed the big jump in early 2012. Usually, median prices will fall in December and January as the higher end market checks out for the holidays. Remember that sales prices reflect accepted offer activity in the 4 to 10 weeks prior. (The small decline from October to November is probably not statistically significant – unless substantiated as a longer term trend.)
Months Supply of Inventory: Very Low
MSI is a measure of how long it would take to sell the current supply of listings at the existing rate of sales. In October and November, it was about as low as it has ever been. This would typically be interpreted as a strong “seller’s market.”
New Listings & the Inventory of Listings for Sale
After the inventory spike in September from the large influx of new listings, in October and November the number of new listings (the first chart below) and the total number of homes for sale (second chart below) are markedly declining and will almost certainly continue to do so until early 2013.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (Buyer Demand)
The statistic used on this chart boils down the supply and demand dynamics into a single statistic. The percentage of listings accepting offers in October and November was probably about as high as it has ever been, far above the level of previous years. The decline seen in September was the result of a large influx of new listings hitting the market in mid-month – these were snapped up at the same fast rate, but many didn’t accept offers until October, after a reasonable marketing and showing period.
